Democratic Maine Sen. Timothy Nangle at Windham Town Hall, where Nangle says he “cut his teeth.” Nangle is running for reelection in a race that could help decide who controls the State House next year. Derek Davis/Staff Photographer

Fall is usually the time when life quiets down in Windham, the busy summer gateway to the Sebago Lakes region.

But this year, the town finds itself in the middle of a battle for control of Maine’s Legislature.

The race for the seat representing Senate District 26, which includes Windham, Raymond and part of Westbrook, is among the state’s most expensive contests this year, with each party pouring money into online ads, mailers and a profusion of roadside signs all aimed at moving an electorate that has historically elected centrist candidates.

Whoever wins battlegrounds like Windham will get to set the state’s agenda, or block it, for the next two years. The future of the state’s budget, tax reform, public education, abortion rights and other big issues are all in play.

The parties and outside groups are leaning into the issues they hope will turnout supporters. For Republicans here and elsewhere throughout the state, that means blaming Democrats for the high cost of living and housing, which has consistently polled as voters’ top concern. For Democrats, that means justifying investments in things like public health and education, while casting Republicans as a threat to abortion access.

This race and others like it, including House races in the Lakes Region and Senate races in Auburn, Augusta and Orono, are intensely partisan, but they are not likely to be affected by the presidential election, according to political scientists. At the local level, it’s more the quality of the candidates and their ability to have face-to-face contact with voters that will determine the winner, they say.

“It’s different from presidential races where people have a more ideological feel about it,” said James Melcher, political science professor at the University of Maine Farmington. “So much of (legislative races) is local and personal.”

As of Oct. 24, party committees and other interest groups have spent $4.1 million on state legislative races. Groups supporting Democrats have the advantage, investing $2.3 million compared to nearly $1.7 million spent by Republican-aligned groups.

A majority of the outside spending, nearly $2.4 million, has focused on the Senate, which has been identified by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics as one of the 13 most competitive state legislative chambers in the country – one of two chambers currently held by Democrats rated as leaning toward the incumbent party.

Kenneth Cianchette, right, Republican candidate for Maine State Senate for District 26, campaigns at the Hot Rods and Heroes car show in Westbrook on Oct. 20. Shawn Patrick Ouellette/Staff Photographer

Democrats hold a nine-seat majority in the Senate, controlling 22 seats compared with 13 held by Republicans. Eight of the 35 seats are open – four incumbents from each party are not seeking reelection.

In the House, Democrats currently hold a 12-seat majority, controlling 79 seats. Republicans hold 67 seats, independents have two and three seats are vacant.

Democrats have controlled the House for the last 30 years, except for two years while Paul LePage was governor.

In Senate District 26, incumbent Sen. Timothy Nangle, D-Windham, is being challenged by Kenneth Cianchette, who has owned a local restaurant and concert venue, Erik’s Church, in Windham for nearly seven years. Cianchette said he was registered as unenrolled voter when he was recruited to run as a Republican.

Cianchette, 37, says that Augusta needs more business people like himself. He said he would focus on strengthening the state economy, including encouraging more commercial development as a way to ease the property tax burden for homeowners. And he says he is uninterested in social or culture war issues.

Cianchette said he hopes to clean up what he sees as a mess – whether it’s the economy, taxation, education or infrastructure. It’s something he’s used to doing as a restaurant owner, he said.

Kenneth Cianchette, Republican candidate for Maine State Senate for District 26.

“We need to go up there and not point fingers,” Cianchette said “We need to go up there and fix the problems. It’s no different than me being a bar owner. When a patron spills a drink, I don’t wait for the patron to clean it up; I grab the mop and clean it myself.”

Cianchette told the Press Herald that he supports a woman’s right to choose whether to get an abortion. But in a candidate flyer for the Christian Civic League, he opposed adding a women’s right to an abortion to the state constitution. He told the Press Herald he couldn’t commit to that proposal without seeing the actual language.

Nangle, a 58-year-old IT professional, said he’s proud of the work Democrats have done in Augusta, including providing the voter-mandated 55% of public education funding for the first time, while approving balanced budgets that invest in communities and filling the state’s so-called “rainy day” fund with more than $900 million.

“I think we have done a good job maintaining fiscal responsibility and continuing to invest in worthwhile programs and infrastructure that needs to be addressed,” Nangle said.

The incoming Legislature will have to address a more than $900 million structural budget deficit projected over the next two-year cycle, including a $637 million gap in the general fund. Such structural gaps are not unusual – every analysis in the past decade has shown a structural gap, except in 2022. And the state routinely updates its revenue forecasts, so the size of the gap is likely to change.

Sen. Timothy Nangle. Derek Davis/Staff Photographer

Republicans are using the report to accuse Democrats of runaway government spending, but Nangle said such gaps are routinely addressed through the budget process.

“I think we need firmer numbers,” Nangle said. “It’s a big number. I’m certainly concerned, but I think it’s too early to start axing programs.”

Republicans are running ads accusing Democrats of ending a popular program that froze property taxes for seniors. That program was created by Republicans with little fanfare. But it quickly proved to be unsustainable for municipalities and the state, as costs skyrocketed. And the program was not limited to people who actually needed the relief, extending benefits to wealthy seniors.

Lawmakers ended the program last year while expanding existing property tax relief programs to make up the difference. The proposal received a Republican vote of support in the Taxation Committee and was included in the state budget, which was recommended in a bipartisan, 11-1, vote of the budget-writing committee.

With the exception of Westbrook, District 26 is evenly divided by party registration, with Republicans, Democrats or unenrolled voters each accounting for about one-third of the registrations.In Westbrook, however, Democrats have a strong enrollment advantage, claiming 45% of enrolled votes, while unenrolled voters make up about 29%, followed by about 20% for Republicans.

WESTBROOK KEY FOR DEMOCRATS

That enrollment advantage in Westbrook has been key for Democrats in that Senate district.

Nangle won the district with 51% of the vote in 2022, primarily by winning over 63% of the vote in the Westbrook portion of the district. His 1,400-vote margin of victory there was enough to make up for his losses in the more rural parts of the district, including Windham, where he lost by more than 700 votes.

But Windham itself has been trending Democratic in recent elections.

In 2016, Republican Donald Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton in Windham, 49% to 41%, in the presidential race, and in 2018, Republican Shawn Moody beat Democrat Janet Mills, 50% to 44%, in the governor’s race, though Mills went on to win the Blaine House.

But in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden beat Trump, 51% to 46%, in the presidential election, and two years later, Mills was awarded a second term over former Republican Gov. Paul LePage, 53% to 46%.

Nicholas Jacobs, an assistant professor of government at Colby College, said candidates pursuing state office in swing districts seek a “delicate balance” of tapping into the energy surrounding the presidential campaign, while not letting it define their candidacies.

“You’re playing a delicate balance where you want the presidential campaign on your side to keep up the mobilization, so you can rely on the strong base,” Jacobs said. “But you don’t want that mobilization to be so intense that it limits your ability in a swing district to carve out a different brand.”