Taking a look at the state of political play in Maine, it’s tempting to presume that it might be a good year for Republicans – apart, that is, from the inevitable reelections of Angus King and Chellie Pingree. That’s not just cynicism: One of the state’s highest-quality polls, the Pan Atlantic Research quarterly omnibus, gave King a 30-point lead and Pingree a 25-point one. That’s not great news for Republicans, but it’s hardly surprising; it was practically foretold from the beginning, before we had any idea who might be running.

What was the more interesting point in the poll was that Republican Austin Theriault is running four points ahead of incumbent Jared Golden in the 2nd District. That’s especially notable because, even though he’s consistently faced competitive elections ever since first getting elected, Golden hasn’t trailed in any public poll since he beat Bruce Poliquin in 2018. That says not only that Theriault is running a tight, disciplined race, but that the general mood of the electorate outside of the heavily Democratic areas is tilting toward the GOP.

That’s reflected in other general questions in the poll. On whether the state is headed in the right or wrong direction, wrong was ahead 44%-40% – bad news for the incumbent Democrats. Another bad point for Democrats, and a reflection of the right/wrong direction question, is what issues people care most about: cost of living, housing, high taxes, inflation and immigration, in that order. Of those issues, only housing could be considered a strength for Democrats; two areas where they’re stronger, health care and the environment, were next, but not in the top five.

All of that’s certainly good news for Maine Republicans. In fact, other than giving Theriault an even larger lead, this was pretty much a dream poll for the GOP. Interestingly – and, frustratingly, to us observers – Pan Atlantic didn’t ask a public question about which legislative candidates voters were supporting. That’s a shame, because while it’s difficult to poll individual legislative races, a generic statewide poll – just like the generic national poll on Congress – would be an intriguing data point. From this wide perspective, without that specific question, it might seem as if Republicans would have a good chance to take control of the Maine House, Senate, or the entire Legislature.

The truth, unfortunately for them, is probably a little bit murkier. This is where deeper structural issues in regards to both the two parties and specific individual races become more profound – and those factors tend to swing more against Republicans.

Democrats, structurally, are better organized, better managed and have more money than Republicans. They didn’t recently kick out their state party chair, only to turn to her as a U.S. Senate candidate when nobody else ran. They aren’t trotting out an unknown, first-time candidate for Congress. In short, Democrats remain the more disciplined, professional political organization in Maine, and they have a whole host of allied organizations to assist them campaigning and amplify their message. That’s a huge advantage, even in a bad year – and this year is probably going to turn out to be about even for Maine Democrats overall, even if it is bad for Jared Golden in particular.

The question for Democrats, though, is if the issues that may be dooming Golden are systemic. Golden has managed to do a remarkably good job of alienating his own base in a whole variety of ways, without showing much for it. He’s also done the opposite, attempting to appease them at various times in half-hearted measures that hurt him politically.

Take his embrace of an assault weapons ban after the shooting in Lewiston. It seems to have alienated Second Amendment supporters without earning him points with liberals. It was enough to get Austin Theriault an NRA endorsement, and they’ve stayed out of Golden’s races in the past. So, what did he get out of it, politically, other than a tweet praising him from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?

Similarly, what did he get out of saying that Trump would win, and that would be just fine? That won’t be enough to get him votes from Trump supporters, and it infuriated Democrats. The question is whether the lack of enthusiasm for Golden, and the uncompetitive nature of the presidential race there, will harm Democrats running for the Legislature in the 2nd District. If it does, and Republicans are organized enough, they may well have a chance to regain control of the Legislature – or at least keep Democrats from getting a supermajority.

Jim Fossel, a conservative activist from Gardiner, worked for Sen. Susan Collins. He can be contacted at:
jwfossel@gmail.com
Twitter: @jimfossel