It’s easy to stay focused like a laser on U.S. politics right now, but we’re not the only ones having elections this year.

You may see analysts summarizing global trends and attempting to apply them to U.S. politics. That’s a fool’s errand in multiple ways.

For one, even though it might seem like there are some obvious global trends lately, it’s easy to find exceptions to them. For another, the U.S. is unique in many ways. We’re the largest democracy in history to use a presidential system (it’s why we have an Electoral College), and third parties and independent candidates have a much smaller role in our politics.

One common refrain is that populist conservatives (some with leaders who have authoritarian tendencies) have been particularly successful lately. Those making this argument point to figures like Viktor Orban in Hungary, Recep Erdoğan in Turkey and Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. If these populist conservatives (among others) have been able to consolidate support in their country, is that a sign conservatives will be ascendant in the United States as well?

Well, no.

Despite all the characterizations of these leaders by the media, they still have to regularly face elections. Erdoğan and Orban both had relatively narrow margins in their last elections. Erdoğan needed a runoff to get reelected, and even then it was with only 52%, while Orban was held to similar numbers – although both won far more parliamentary seats thanks to gerrymandering.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, had to roll back his planned judicial reforms in the face of mass protests and looks set to lose the next election, thanks in large part to the war in Gaza. Elsewhere, the conservative Law and Justice Party recently lost power in Poland, the Tories were trounced in the U.K. and the National Rally unexpectedly came in third in French elections.

So, no, conservatives are not ascendant globally. Even if an elected leader has authoritarian tendencies, they’re able to be defeated as long as the democratic structure remains intact. In all of the countries mentioned above, conservatives were often helped by a divided and/or inept opposition.

What about an anti-incumbent mood, then? After all, the Tories lost power in the U.K. after 14 years. In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s ruling centrist party came in second to the far left. This theoretical trend might be slightly more accurate, but it’s still far from universal: In elections to the European Parliament, the center-right coalition held on to power.

Similarly in Belgium, the incumbent party retained power, while in Finland, the president’s former party, centrist conservatives, won another presidential election. There was a mixed result in South Africa; the ANC, which had ruled since the end of apartheid, lost its majority for the first time but retained the presidency under a coalition government. In Mexico, the president’s chosen successor won easily. So, apparently, not all incumbents, or incumbent parties, need to be walking on eggshells worldwide.

Another perceived theme, one closely tied to those mentioned above, is the upending of traditional party systems.

In Italy, the Brothers of Italy – long considered an extremist nationalist party – was swept into power in 2022, upstaging the traditional conservative party. In France, the two-party system has been demolished twice: first by centrist president Macron’s party and various alliances, then again by the National Rally and their opponents just last week. In England, amid the sweeping victory by Labour, minor parties (other than the Scottish National Party) did relatively well. Minor parties have done well globally lately, but they mostly haven’t upended the left-right dynamic – just given it a facelift.

Unfortunately, we’re not likely to see the collapse of the two-party system in the U.S. any time soon.

Even if most of these trends were accurate, they wouldn’t be as applicable to the U.S. Anti-incumbent sentiment might be bad for President Biden, but as a former president, Donald Trump is hardly an outsider. The rise of conservative populism might help Trump, but it also motivates his opponents. Even as we take a look at global trends to see if they have any impact on the U.S., it’s important to remember that our system is unique – and that this election, with two presidents running against one another, is going to be tough to categorize in a global context.

Jim Fossel, a conservative activist from Gardiner, worked for Sen. Susan Collins. He can be contacted at:
jwfossel@gmail.com
Twitter: @jimfossel

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